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TEAM predictions

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Division Winner

New Orleans - 9-8

2026 Power Rank: 24th    2025 DVOA: 28th    2026 Schedule: 2nd   2026 O-Line: 10th   Offseason: 9th

The Saints started 2-10 in '25 where the D was again top-10 & rookie QB Shough was 20th in RTG/QBR for a respectable 13th ranked pass attack. Enter free agents G Edwards (19th best PFF grade) & RB Etienne to upgrade a paltry run game, 28th in YPG, 31st in YPC. Progress from Shough, a top-10 O-Line & adding #1 pick WR Tyson to Olave for a top duo is promising. Vet LB Davis departure is concerening but the NFL's 2nd easiest schedule is a plus. Given the weak NFC South, we bet them in a division winner parlay with Houston at +684.

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2nd Place Finish

Tampa Bay - 9-8

2026 Power Rank: 19th    2025 DVOA: 20th    2026 Schedule: 23rd   2026 O-Line: 5th   Offseason: 18th

QB Mayfield's MVP-ish '24 subsided in '25 (QB ranks 12th/21st & 7th most int's) which we predicted given OC Cohen's departure. A beat-up O-Line (an NFL top-5 when healthy), didn't help. Their points scored  dropped from 502 to 380 & loses top WR Evans. McMillan & stud Egbuka must elevate. They also ranked 20th in DVOA. Their 20th ranked D is aging. We think the Bucs will be better than '25 & while the division favorite in Vegas, we favor the younger, upstart Saints. 

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3rd Place Finish

Atlanta - 7-9

2026 Power Rank: 26th    2025 DVOA: 19th    2026 Schedule: 20th   2026 O-Line: 9th   Offseason: 29th

The Falcons 8 wins marked the 6th straight year with 7 or 8. Mired in mediocrity means no playoffs & no high draft picks. QB's Penix & Cousins broke 200 pass YPG only 7 times. Star RB Robinson is magnificent, 3rd in rushing & 4th in YPC. #1 WR London lacks a #2 to balance the passing attack although we think new QB Tua will upgrade the passing game given their #9 ranked O-Line. Their 17th ranked D is chronically mediocre. New, underrated, 2-time Coach of the Year Stefanski brings sanity to a team lacking good coaching for a long time. We are cautiously bullish for the longer term, despite short-term pain.  

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4th Place Finish

Carolina - 7-9

2026 Power Rank: 25th    2025 DVOA: 25th    2026 Schedule: 30th   2026 O-Line: 11th   Offseason: 6th

An 8-9 division winning season masks the 23rd point differential and #25 DVOA rank. QB Young regressed to 22nd/27th QB ranks after '24 progress. RB Dowdle leaves after finishing 16th in YPC so we expect a rebound for Hubbard (3.6 YPC) & we are high on injured '25 rookie Brooks. The #11 ranked O-Line is quietly good. B/R ranked their defense dead last in the '25 preseason, but they finished 17th & 15th in YPG & points. Adding LB Lloyd & Phillips should help. With the 3rd toughest schedule on tap, we put them last in a division up for grabs.   

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