TEAM predictions
Division Winner
Tampa Bay - 10-7
2025 Power Rank: 12th 2024 DVOA: 11th 2025 Schedule: 10th
QB Mayfield nailed his 2nd straight effective season with stats on the cusp of MVP leaders. Bucs got 10 wins as one of only four teams scoring 500 points. They have arguably the best WR's (Godwin, Evans, McMillan, Egbuka) & FTN 3rd ranked o-line. Their projected #18 defense is good enough to help produce victories. We think Mayfield could regress without OC Coen who left for Jacksonville, but they will win this weak division coming off their 11th DVOA rank from 2024.
2nd Place Finish
Atlanta - 7-10
2025 Power Rank: 22th 2024 DVOA: 20th 2025 Schedule: 4th
The Falcons finished 2020-2024 with 7 or 8 wins. QB Penix needs to improve this average offense with weapons limited to WR London & RB Robinson, who we bet 12-1 for the rushing title. This #7 FTN o-line is a major strength. Their B/R #28 ranked defense added pash rushers in Floyd & 1st round picks Walker & Pearce to solve a long term issue getting QB pressure. We concur with FTN's #20 DVOA as the team appears below average overall.
3rd Place Finish
Carolina - 6-11
2025 Power Rank: 29th 2024 DVOA: 30th 2025 Schedule: 7th
QB Bryce Young made some encouraging progress in '24, albeit only 23rd in pass yards. Despite a 5 wins season he gives them long term hope. RB Hubbard re-emerged at #8 in rush yards. Their #20 ranked o-line (PFF) pre-'24 is now ranked #9 by FTN. B/R ranks their defense dead last for '25 as '24 was a disaster giving up 534 points and was Swiss cheese against the run giving up almost 180 yards per game. Even the 7th easiest schedule probably won't save them as we see six wins.
4th Place Finish
New Orleans - 4-13
2025 Power Rank: 32nd 2024 DVOA: 22nd 2025 Schedule: 3rd
The Saints have lost QB Carr to retirement & turn to Rattler, Haener or rookie Shough. The 24th ranked FTN o-line is regressing, RB Kamara has lost a step & star WR Olave is often injured. Bleacher Report ranks their 2025 defense dead last at #32 where their stars are well over 30 years old. They are in total rebuild mode with cap issues. We see about 4 wins for new coach Kellen Moore despite the weak division and 3rd easiest NFL schedule based on Vegas opponents over/under wins odds.