• NFL favorites are the least consistent performers of the four major sports.

• Select teams with great quarterbacks - it's a quarterback driven league.

• Favor teams with cold weather home field playoff potential.

• Avoid "trendy picks", historically weaker teams that surprised the prior year.

• Avoid teams in tough divisions. Even if they make the playoffs, road games loom.

• Avoid teams with quarterbacks in their first or second year in the league.

• Beware teams in the bottom third of the NFL in rushing the prior year. 

• The NFC leads the AFC 31 to 29 wins

• AFC has won 7 of the last 12

• Consecutive Wins: NFC- 13 (1985-1997), AFC- 5 (1973-1977)

• Won 12 of last 23 games outright, 52%

• Covered the spread in 14 of the last 19, 74% and 18 of the last 25, 72%

• Avoid teams with pre-season odds greater than 22-1, they've won only 8 off 49 times (16%) from 1977-2025 and only 6 of 43 (14%) from 1983-2025.

• A great sweet spot is teams from 10-1 to 16-1, they've won 16 of 49 times (33%) from 1977 to 2025.

• Another sweet spot is teams between 10-1 and 22-1, winning 20 0f 49 times (41%) from 1977 to 2025.

• 31 of last 36 teams (86%) that won had preseason projected wins of 9.5 or over (adjusted for 17-game season).

Super Bowl point spread favorites win 66% of the time but fail recently versus the spread:

• Win-loss record all-time: 38-21, 63%

• Versus the spread all-time: 30-28-2

• Since 2000 versus spread: 7-18, 28%

Super Bowl underdogs by 10 points or more have won a remarkable 36% of games.

•  Win-Loss record: 5-9

•  Versus the spread: 6-7-1​

Super Bowl LX Favorites (6/14/26)

LA Rams +550

Baltimore 10-1

Buffalo 10-1

Seattle 11-1

Philadelphia 16-1

New England 16-1

Kansas City 16-1

LA Chargers 17-1

Super Bowl champs record of repeating the following year as champs:

• Teams repeated 9 times all-time in 59 tries or only 15%, twice in 25 times since 2000 or only 8%.

• No team has won 3 in a row.

• Losing Super Bowl teams returned the following year only 7 times in 59 or 12%.